I Am Withdrawing…

… money from my Betfair account today come rain or shine, or if you live in Canada, come snow (we had around 6 inches of the white stuff overnight and it’s still coming down).  I’ve done reasonably well over the past few days given what I have to work with and I’ll be damned if I’m going to give it all back in a moment of madness like I almost did yesterday.

Following two 0-0 half time games back to back (that both ended in goalfests in their respective second halves) I thought I had spotted a way of easily recouping the money I had lost.  Zwolle and Emmen had gone in for their half time tea and hash cakes both having scored 3 goals apiece so my brilliant plan was to either back unquoted or lay the 3-3 then collect.  I opted to lay the 3-3 as it was the cheaper option given the amount I wished to recoup versus the potential loss if all went wrong.

Well I waited and waited and waited some more (no feed by the way, only totally blind seat of the pants stuff for me) then finally the Suspended sign arrived at around the 70 minute mark if I recall correctly.  “There ya go !” I trumpeted to myself and began to fill in my spreadsheet.  I went back to Betfair to refresh my balance and saw to my utter dismay that the correct score grid was still there so the Suspended must have been down to a twitchy suspend monkey or some other pitch incident.  Turns out that Zwolle had a man sent off and more often than not a sending off means no more goals as teams shut up shop.  I watched the correct score market prices drop lower and lower and watched the clock tick closer to 90 minutes.  With about a minute to go I dejectedly amended my spreadsheet and entered the figures that Excel decided would reduce my account to less than half of what I started the day with.  A total disaster.

On top of this one of my dogs had been showing signs of something bothering him so I had decided that he had to go to the vet before they packed in for the weekend.  I wanted to avoid the  possibility of having to take him for an emergency session out of hours as it’s bloody expensive but moreover I didn’t want him feeling poorly all weekend so I made a call and booked him in and we reached for our coats to leave.

By this time the Zwolle match was finished and I took a quick last look at xscores.com more in hope than anything else as I was so sure that my bet was down the pan and to my utter delight I saw that the final score was 3-4.  4 minutes of injury time were called for, no doubt as a result of the sending off, and Emmen score in the very last minute of the game to save my arse.  The dog saw the vet, got his arse felt which prompted him to bite through Mrs Swearbox’s finger as she was the one holding him at the time, then he got an injection for pain and a weeks course of anti biotics.  Judging by the way he greeted me this morning as I lay in bed trying to fight the urge to get up for a piss I would say he’s feeling better already.

While the above drivel may not exactly set anyone’s world on fire it’s quite amazing how one small stroke of luck can change your thought processes.  Had that result gone against me I’d probably have gone on the chase which as we all know is the last thing you should do, though having said that the Zwolle bet in and of itself could be viewed as a chase bet as it’s sole purpose was to recoup the losses of the previous two losing bets.

I still don’t really have any sort of system in place and I’m not sure how long I can survive before the bank is busted.  Maybe I’ll be OK but I’ve let my discipline slip a couple of times already this past week and that’s not good, even though the outcomes went in my favour.

Todays betting so far has seen me take away money from the first four games I got involved in but I gave a little back after Schalke and Hamburg saw fit to play out a goalless first half earlier.  Following that slight reversal I decided it’s now or never and sent almost two thirds of my Betfair bank to my bank account and I have to say I feel quite good about it.  It’s no fun to see deposit after deposit going into Betfair and nothing coming back out.  Hopefully there will be more days like today where I can see some money going out of Betfair rather than in.

As for the remainder of the day I may dip my toe into the water again so I won’t post up the spreadsheet just yet.  There will be at least one more post in the form of an update regardless of what I elect to do.  Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Since I last posted I have bet in two matches and I’m pleased to tell you that I have been successful in both.  The Sevilla v Espanyol match produced a goal before half time and the Atlante v Cruz Azul match has gone over 1.5 goals.

I was going to lay the 0-0 half time score in the Atlante match but after watching the action it was clear that neither side was really interested in scoring.  Having watched Cruz Azul many times in the past I know they can do better than they showed in the first half of this game.  Call me a conspiracy theorist if you like but there are a tremendous amount of football matches from countries like Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, and the like that stink to high heaven.  Goalless first halves followed by goalfests in the second half.  I really do think that someone somewhere has to be influencing the results of at least the first half in a lot of these matches.  It’s almost as if the teams are instructed to keep clean sheets for the first half and do what they like for the second half.  The game has just ended with a 3-0 victory for the home team after the highlights of the first half showed one half chance and no goals. 

Tomorrow sees the mighty reds back in action and I’m surprised at how many people expect to see Spurs to get a result.  Personally I think it will be a high scoring game and I will be dutching scorelines of 1-3 and 2-3.  I like the way Spurs play but I think their attacking style will suit United’s counter attack game down to the ground and hopefully things pan out my way but whatever happens it looks like being a good match. 

That’s it from me for tonight – it’s past midnight here and way past most of my readers’ bedtimes so I’ll leave you with the updated spready and will return tomorrow.  I’ll have to post two spreadsheets as I can’t show all the info from the past couple of days on just one.  Please note that the calculation for todays profit and loss does not reflect a withdrawal of £300.  The new bank following the cessation of the Atlante v Cruz Azul game is actually £201.57.

Start Bank(13th) :    313.61
End Bank         :    385.4
Profit / Loss    :   +71.79 (After Commission)

Start Bank(14th) :    385.4
End Bank         :    426.4
Profit / Loss    :   +41.00 (After Commission)

Start Bank(15th) :    426.4
End Bank         :    501.57
Profit / Loss    :   +75.17 (After Commission)

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  (17th Jan) Having just finished updating my spreadsheet I noticed that I’ve carried forward inaccurate commission entries for the Villareal, West Ham, and Sevilla matches.  I copied and pasted an amount of 0.54 instead of the correct amount of 0.74 commission paid on the Villareal & West Ham matches.  For the Sevilla match I calculated the commission based on the differences in totals between Betfair and my spreadsheet.  The next spreadsheet will show the corrected amounts.

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2 Responses to I Am Withdrawing…

  1. Cassini says:

    Yes, it’s often a very thin line between exhilaration and despair. I was trading one of the NFL games last weekend and looking at a four figure red when the team I was behind were forced to punt. Next minute, someone ran into the kicker, automatic first down, and I could lock in a nice three figure green. Sometimes you get the breaks, sometimes you don’t.

    The story about your dog and the vet reminds me of the old joke – Q: “What’s your pet hate”? A: “Well, he doesn’t much like me sticking my finger up his arse”…

  2. swearbox says:

    Hi Cassini,

    Well it was mostly despair today as my predicted goalfest in the Spurs v Utd game never materialised. Add to that the dismal showing by Real Madrid and my account, while not in tatters, is looking fairly poorly again.

    The dog, on the other hand, has perked up tremendously and is pretty much back to his old self so I’m glad about that. In fact he just tried to savage me as I leant across to kiss Mrs Swearbox..he’s quite protective like that. Maybe he wouldn’t be so quick to attack me if he knew how much it cost to get his arse fixed.

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