Since Betfair lifted my posting ban I’ve been lurking around the forums a lot more than when I was restricted to just reading and there’s been a raft of posts recently regarding that most illusive of animals, namely ‘the edge’. The edge is that thing that you must possess that gives you an advantage over your fellow bettors in your chosen betting medium, be it football, horses, tennis or whatever. This is the thing that you absolutely must have if you are to survive over the longer term as a bettor.
Personally I don’t think I have one but then again maybe I do but don’t realise it. I know a couple of really good staking systems (for laying) that can be applied to pretty much any market – maybe they are an edge of sorts. Those who claim to possess their own holy grail are reluctant to share it and rightly so but therein lies the rub – how do we know they have this edge if they won’t tell us what it is ?
I would hazard a guess that the arrival of the betting exchanges paved the way for many forward thinking punters to gain an edge for a fair while over their traditional bookie frequenting brethren. Nowadays pretty much everyone is clued in and while I don’t have any statistical evidence to offer I would say the playing field is a lot more level. Mathematical edges that have been enjoyed in the past are disappearing fast as the markets are so damn efficient now.
I read a lot about people moaning over their failure to capitalise on a particular event (a goal scored or whatever) because they were waiting for a price and the event occurred before their price was reached. This ties in with another biggie subject and that is the contention that you must always seek value if you are to succeed. So while you are sitting waiting for your ‘value’ price to appear a goal gets scored and you miss out. Or better yet you get your value price and the horse falls at the first fence. My take on value is that if you are happy with a price, regardless of whether it is truely a value price, then step in. I would say that the vast majority of punters, and I count myself here, could not price a market to save their lives so any thoughts of finding value goes straight out the window.
Anyway, back to the subject. So, if the markets are so efficient that it’s impossible to gain an edge mathematically how else do we do it ? The form books are there for all to read, the racing press is available in every corner newsagents in the land. That nails the door shut there – if I can spot an unusual trend that proves profitable over a long term then so can the next guy who reads the same paper. Edge gone. It’s all very baffling if you ask me. I think those who genuinely do have some sort of leg up on the rest of us are the truly dedicated sort who actually do the legwork and work their arses off to find those little clues that the majority of us are too lazy to uncover. Either that or they have horseshoes up their jacksies.
I don’t usually proof read my stuff until it’s actually posted so the above might just be the biggest load of bollocks ever but it’s my load of bollocks and I offer it to you free of charge.
Now, you might be thinking after having looked at my pathetic account balance that I know feck all so why listen to me but you’d be wrong. I know stuff, plenty of stuff, but right now I have to content myself with Mickey Mousery for a while until I can build a balance that I can actually do something with. That’s another thing I see a lot – advice to the tune of ‘set aside some money and use it only for betting. Don’t use the betting bank for anything else’. That’s a great idea – build a massive betting bank and just have it sitting there growing bigger. Don’t bother to occasionally pay yourself some money to go and buy something – oh no, that would be sacrilege. Bollocks I say – make some money then pay yourself then make some more and repeat the process ad infinitum.
OK, I’ve had enough with the sermon so onto the gloating. The last couple of days have been very kind to me as I’ve almost tripled my balance since I last posted. 4 footy matches out of 5 went my way yesterday and I ventured onto the Aussie horsey forum last night where The Master aka starofthemagi steered me into a 10/1 winner. The only issue with that was I was on but for next to no money as I took the only cash available at 11.0 (3 quid) then went to bed as I couldn’t be arsed to wait up another 3 hours for the start of the race. At the risk of jinxing the rest of today I can report that there will be info to be had from the same source concerning a nag running in the second race at Mudgee downunder tonight. All it takes to find out which one it is is to read the Aussie horsey forum – there, that’s an edge in itself. Hopefully it wins but if it doesn’t don’t blame the messenger and all that.
Todays footy bets have come in so far with goals in the first halves of the Airbus UK and Portimonense games. Both matches turned into goalfests with 7 goals in each match. Great for goal backers. The nag runs in a little under 2 hours and then I may get involved in the Mexican pish to round the night off but hopefully the nag pisses in and I opt to get pished instead. That’s it for now but will return for the customary update a bit later on.
UPDATE>>>>>>>>> Well the second race at Mudgee came and went (eventually after a late start) but the main man has yet to appear on the forum so no tip(s) have appeared as yet. Apologies to anyone who might have waited around (like I did) but I’m sure there was a good reason for it. I’ll be hanging around the forum for a while longer as there will be some golden snippets of info posted at some point this evening from someone on the Saturday race thread, that I’m sure of.
UPDATE>>>>>>>>> I hope at least some of you hung in there and visited the Aussie forum because they really do know their stuff. I just finished off my evening with a 16/1 winner which followed an 11/1 winner, both of which were offered up by the very knowledgable punters that frequent the said forum. My end bank would have been another 100 above it’s current balance but when I back horses I tend to place bets so that the back bet goes in pre race and as soon as the race goes off I place a lay bet at odds I hope will get matched though not too high to make the whole effort a waste of time if the horse wins. Yes you give money back if you back the winner but if your horse runs well but gets beat you tend to get your money back plus a bit extra most of the time.
I have a whole bunch of horsey info scribbled down on a pad in front of me but I can’t be bothered to stay up any more. Looking forward to the footy on offer this weekend and in particular to the Man Utd v Scousers match on Sunday. It’s gonna be a biggie.
So I’ll bid you good night and hopefully tomorrow will be as pleasant as today. Spreadsheet below.
Start Bank (6th): 47.59
End Bank : 107.26
Profit / Loss : +59.67 (After Commission)
Start Bank (7th): 107.26
End Bank : 248.29
Profit / Loss : +141.03 (After Commission)