Not Feeling That Great

January 28, 2011

Been under the weather since Saturday night and haven’t really been up to much except lying in bed.  Went to the Emergency Room last night cos my fever wouldn’t break and my chest was tight as hell, plus coughing a lot.  Turns out I have fecking pneumonia.  Anyway I now have the required drugs to hopefully put paid to it and with luck it’ll be on it’s way soon.

Not gonna bother running through the past week’s antics as it’s all there in the spreadsheet but the good news is I’ve managed to win a bit on each of the days I’ve had a bet since I last posted. So, before I fall completely asleep due to my drugs, here’s the spready etc.

Start Bank(22nd) :    54.19
End Bank         :    54.52
Profit / Loss    :   +0.33 (After Commission)

Start Bank(23rd) :    54.52
End Bank         :    77.29
Profit / Loss    :   +22.77 (After Commission)

Start Bank(27th) :    77.29
End Bank         :    91.55
Profit / Loss    :   +14.26 (After Commission)

Bank Jobs

January 21, 2011

We all know what they are and we all know that we shouldn’t do them but sometimes needs must.  One of those times is upon me right now.  If you’ve been following my (mis)fortunes of late you’ll know that my account took a pasting the other day.  Since then I’ve slipped further, reaching a low of just £16 and change, then I had a bit of a rally to finish off yesterday with the princely sum of £39.31.  I have taken the decision to wager this whole amount on a game between 2 teams I have never heard of and to be honest I can’t even be arsed to even begin to try and find a stream to watch them (if such a thing exists).

The bet is all in on over 3.5 goals and the reasoning is simple – 3 goals have already been scored and it’s only half time.  The scant bit of research I have done reveals that the home team have scored quite a few late goals in this current season so I’m taking that to mean that they at least are tryers but who knows what they’ll do today ?

If all goes to ratshit then a reload will occur at some point however I am hoping that it won’t be necessary as these two shining stars are sure to produce at least one more goal.  I will of course be back with an update later.  I should really mention the game that my fortunes rest on…it is the Egyptian Prem game between Ismaily and Haras El Hodood.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  The bank job went OK and I am now in clover.  I will be paying the PC charge pretty soon if I keep this up.  Flushed with success I am staying with the Egyptian Premier League as it is now my favourite league of all and I have opted to lay the 0-0 half time score between table toppers Zamalek and the team in 8th spot namely El Entag El Harby (as if you didn’t know).   The game is 15 minutes old and before the end of the half I expect my account to have topped the £60 mark.  Back later on.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Pathetic bunch of Egyptian no marks decided a nil nil draw at half time would suit them just fine.  I watched a really shitty feed and from what I saw I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this game finished nil apiece.  No real chances created with the team in white dominating possession but ultimately doing fuck all with the ball.  A bit like Arsenal really.  Anyway, moving on, I’m not sure what to do next as I really expected a result there so for now I’m going to hang fire for a while.  Back later on.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  I didn’t get chance to post earlier as I got called away to do some work at fairly short notice but I’m pleased to be able to tell you, in an aftertiming kinda way, that I placed my second bank job of the day just before I left to go out.

I lumped all of the £31.82 that was left (after I got fucked over by the non trying Egyptians) onto the 0-0 score in that same game with around 20 minutes left to play.  When I was sure the match had ended I phoned my mrs to ask her to refresh my Betfair account and tell me what the balance was.  The lazy bastards (collectively known as Zamalek and El Entag El Harby) played out the rest of the match without troubling the scoreline any further and my account has swelled up again to almost double the day’s starting balance.

I do have one more bet planned today and that is on the Aussie racing.  The horse is called Intencion and it runs at 02.50 UK time in the second race at Rosehill.  This was tipped up last night on the Aussie horsey forum and as long as it’s price doesn’t get ridiculously short I’ll be on it.  That’s it for a while…back in a bit.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Horse was unplaced so there’s another score out of my account…ffs !  Fucking bugs me as I monitor that forum a lot and last night the guy who tipped up Intencion popped in with one tip that romped in at a decent price (was 8.5 on the Aussie tote / TAB/ whatever it is though I missed the race as I had an early night last night).  At least I didn’t put the whole bank on it thank fuck.  I’m desperate to get past a ton in this account (does it show ?) and I’ll make it before the weekend is out – either that or I’ll go broke.  I’m off to quietly seethe.  Spreadsheet below.

Start Bank(19th) :    32.07
End Bank         :    36.83
Profit / Loss    :   +4.76 (After Commission)

Start Bank(20th) :    36.83
End Bank         :    39.31
Profit / Loss    :   +2.48 (After Commission)

Start Bank(21st) :    39.31
End Bank         :    54.19
Profit / Loss    :   +14.88 (After Commission)

Done 80% Of My Bank Today

January 18, 2011

What a day – everything I touched turned to shite.  Got beaten by the Suspend on two occasions which really pissed me off as both times I had picked a potentially winning punt.  In the Panama v El Salvador match I layed the 0-0 half time score only to later on bottle it and back the 0-0 half time score but I had a brain fart as the bet was matching and ended up with a totally red market.  As the price got lower I then decided to lay the 0-0 again and this was one of the games where the suspend came before the bet got matched – 3 seconds short to be precise.  Like a tool I then layed the 1-0 half time score and then regretted it as I watched two completely inept teams scrap it out on a shitty pitch to finish the half 1-0.  There was a little bit clawed back from the Racing v River game that I was playing at the same time as the Panama game but it did little to help me out.

Following the football I progressed (or should that be regressed ?) to Aussie racing and all four picks have lost, the last but one being beat in a photo for first place.  Account is decimated and will take forever to build back up.  Not happy.

Start Bank       :    184.34
End Bank         :    32.07
Profit / Loss    :   -152.27 (After Commission)

We’ll Give You Two Goals Start

January 17, 2011

Just finished watching the Atletico Goianiense v Santa Helena match and I’m sure that’s what Atletico must have said to the away side before the match.  “We’ll give you two goals start but from there you’re on your own”.  The away side were two up inside 15 minutes and then the rest of the match was all Atletico.  They went in at half time 0-2 and shortly after the break the first of Atletico’s 3 goals went in. 

Prior to Atletico’s first goal the prices on Betfair were crazy with the correct score market favouring the home side while the Match odds market had them as no hopers (almost).  I initially started off with a lay of the away side after they had scored the second goal and the play became a bit one sided in favour of Atletico.  I placed a number of other small bets on the correct score market and again in the match odds market and thankfully I came away from the match with a small profit.

Earlier in the day I had received an email from a friend detailing some lay bets he had lined up on the horses so I had a bit of a dabble.  The first lay (Silicium) looked like it was going to win and I’m sure it traded as low as 1.03 but the heavy ground at Fakenham took it’s toll and AP McCoy had to settle for second place.  The next race I got involved in was a 3 runner event and while the advice on the email had correctly identified McCoy’s mount as a lay I opted instead to back the rag of the race hoping for a big run with a view to trading out.  The selection ran a great race and while it finished last of the three it was bang in there with a chance two out.  It’s price dropped significantly enough for a quick trade to be successfully made and that was that.

Yesterday was a total disaster – the Spurs game finished 0-0 so I lost money there and then Real Madrid let me down by scoring no goals before half time.  They always score before half time ffs.  Anyway, those were the only two bets of the day yesterday and they cost me almost 50% of my bank.

Nothing more for today, spready below.

Start Bank(16th) :    201.57 (after £300 withdrawal)
End Bank         :    107.37
Profit / Loss    :   -94.20 (After Commission)

Start Bank(17th) :    107.37
End Bank         :    147.09
Profit / Loss    :   +39.72 (After Commission)

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Got bored and had a dabble on the Aussie racing which has changed the figures a bit so rather than fiddle about changing spready inserts and editing the final P&L I’m adding it below.  There is definitely no more updates to this post as I’m signing off on a winner (even though I gave back a fair bit by laying it off in running).  Amended spready etc below.

Start Bank(17th) :    107.37
End Bank         :    184.34
Profit / Loss    :   +76.97 (After Commission)

I Am Withdrawing…

January 15, 2011

… money from my Betfair account today come rain or shine, or if you live in Canada, come snow (we had around 6 inches of the white stuff overnight and it’s still coming down).  I’ve done reasonably well over the past few days given what I have to work with and I’ll be damned if I’m going to give it all back in a moment of madness like I almost did yesterday.

Following two 0-0 half time games back to back (that both ended in goalfests in their respective second halves) I thought I had spotted a way of easily recouping the money I had lost.  Zwolle and Emmen had gone in for their half time tea and hash cakes both having scored 3 goals apiece so my brilliant plan was to either back unquoted or lay the 3-3 then collect.  I opted to lay the 3-3 as it was the cheaper option given the amount I wished to recoup versus the potential loss if all went wrong.

Well I waited and waited and waited some more (no feed by the way, only totally blind seat of the pants stuff for me) then finally the Suspended sign arrived at around the 70 minute mark if I recall correctly.  “There ya go !” I trumpeted to myself and began to fill in my spreadsheet.  I went back to Betfair to refresh my balance and saw to my utter dismay that the correct score grid was still there so the Suspended must have been down to a twitchy suspend monkey or some other pitch incident.  Turns out that Zwolle had a man sent off and more often than not a sending off means no more goals as teams shut up shop.  I watched the correct score market prices drop lower and lower and watched the clock tick closer to 90 minutes.  With about a minute to go I dejectedly amended my spreadsheet and entered the figures that Excel decided would reduce my account to less than half of what I started the day with.  A total disaster.

On top of this one of my dogs had been showing signs of something bothering him so I had decided that he had to go to the vet before they packed in for the weekend.  I wanted to avoid the  possibility of having to take him for an emergency session out of hours as it’s bloody expensive but moreover I didn’t want him feeling poorly all weekend so I made a call and booked him in and we reached for our coats to leave.

By this time the Zwolle match was finished and I took a quick last look at more in hope than anything else as I was so sure that my bet was down the pan and to my utter delight I saw that the final score was 3-4.  4 minutes of injury time were called for, no doubt as a result of the sending off, and Emmen score in the very last minute of the game to save my arse.  The dog saw the vet, got his arse felt which prompted him to bite through Mrs Swearbox’s finger as she was the one holding him at the time, then he got an injection for pain and a weeks course of anti biotics.  Judging by the way he greeted me this morning as I lay in bed trying to fight the urge to get up for a piss I would say he’s feeling better already.

While the above drivel may not exactly set anyone’s world on fire it’s quite amazing how one small stroke of luck can change your thought processes.  Had that result gone against me I’d probably have gone on the chase which as we all know is the last thing you should do, though having said that the Zwolle bet in and of itself could be viewed as a chase bet as it’s sole purpose was to recoup the losses of the previous two losing bets.

I still don’t really have any sort of system in place and I’m not sure how long I can survive before the bank is busted.  Maybe I’ll be OK but I’ve let my discipline slip a couple of times already this past week and that’s not good, even though the outcomes went in my favour.

Todays betting so far has seen me take away money from the first four games I got involved in but I gave a little back after Schalke and Hamburg saw fit to play out a goalless first half earlier.  Following that slight reversal I decided it’s now or never and sent almost two thirds of my Betfair bank to my bank account and I have to say I feel quite good about it.  It’s no fun to see deposit after deposit going into Betfair and nothing coming back out.  Hopefully there will be more days like today where I can see some money going out of Betfair rather than in.

As for the remainder of the day I may dip my toe into the water again so I won’t post up the spreadsheet just yet.  There will be at least one more post in the form of an update regardless of what I elect to do.  Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Since I last posted I have bet in two matches and I’m pleased to tell you that I have been successful in both.  The Sevilla v Espanyol match produced a goal before half time and the Atlante v Cruz Azul match has gone over 1.5 goals.

I was going to lay the 0-0 half time score in the Atlante match but after watching the action it was clear that neither side was really interested in scoring.  Having watched Cruz Azul many times in the past I know they can do better than they showed in the first half of this game.  Call me a conspiracy theorist if you like but there are a tremendous amount of football matches from countries like Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, and the like that stink to high heaven.  Goalless first halves followed by goalfests in the second half.  I really do think that someone somewhere has to be influencing the results of at least the first half in a lot of these matches.  It’s almost as if the teams are instructed to keep clean sheets for the first half and do what they like for the second half.  The game has just ended with a 3-0 victory for the home team after the highlights of the first half showed one half chance and no goals. 

Tomorrow sees the mighty reds back in action and I’m surprised at how many people expect to see Spurs to get a result.  Personally I think it will be a high scoring game and I will be dutching scorelines of 1-3 and 2-3.  I like the way Spurs play but I think their attacking style will suit United’s counter attack game down to the ground and hopefully things pan out my way but whatever happens it looks like being a good match. 

That’s it from me for tonight – it’s past midnight here and way past most of my readers’ bedtimes so I’ll leave you with the updated spready and will return tomorrow.  I’ll have to post two spreadsheets as I can’t show all the info from the past couple of days on just one.  Please note that the calculation for todays profit and loss does not reflect a withdrawal of £300.  The new bank following the cessation of the Atlante v Cruz Azul game is actually £201.57.

Start Bank(13th) :    313.61
End Bank         :    385.4
Profit / Loss    :   +71.79 (After Commission)

Start Bank(14th) :    385.4
End Bank         :    426.4
Profit / Loss    :   +41.00 (After Commission)

Start Bank(15th) :    426.4
End Bank         :    501.57
Profit / Loss    :   +75.17 (After Commission)

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  (17th Jan) Having just finished updating my spreadsheet I noticed that I’ve carried forward inaccurate commission entries for the Villareal, West Ham, and Sevilla matches.  I copied and pasted an amount of 0.54 instead of the correct amount of 0.74 commission paid on the Villareal & West Ham matches.  For the Sevilla match I calculated the commission based on the differences in totals between Betfair and my spreadsheet.  The next spreadsheet will show the corrected amounts.

Lets All Laugh At Arsenal

January 12, 2011

The first leg of the Carling cup tie between Ipswich Town and Arsenal has now finished and I’ll bet there are some mighty pissed off punters out there.  I was nearly one of them.  Pre match everyone was predicting that it would be a cake walk for the Gooners because, after all, this was only Ipswich they were playing, not a decent club, so team selection wouldn’t really be that much of an issue.  Oh really ?

Arsenal were shit to a man today – Arshavin and Bendtner were on the pitch in body alone, their minds clearly somewhere else.  They (Arsenal) tried their usual pass pass pass walk the ball about routine and it got them nowhere.  Ipswich, on the other hand, gritted their teeth and played with spirit throughout and I tip my hat to them.    Their long ball down the middle eventually paid off though in fairness it was offside but wtf – the Arse get their share of dodgy decisions.  They’ll probably win the return leg at the Emirates 4-0 and that’s fine by me if they don’t dick around like they did today.

I have to confess to having been swayed by the opinions of the masses pre game and I opted for a starting bet that I rarely resort to, that being a back of any unquoted at half time.  I expected Arsenal to push hard from the get go and try to nick an early lead thereby giving me a chance to trade out for a profit.  As time ticked by I decided to lay the 0-0 half time score as well when the price became a bit more acceptable.  I really did think we’d see a goal before half time.

At the start of the second half I was determined to recoup my first half losses and I thought that as long as there was at least a goal I should get my money back plus a little bit more if I backed accordingly but it was a nail biter for a long time.  All but £16 of my account balance was committed and I have to admit that it was a totally foolish thing to do in hindsight but I got lucky.

It’s not the first really dumb thing I’ve done this week – on Monday night, after a fairly decent Monday afternoon on the footy,  I visited the Aussie racing forum in search of some jewels but it turned into a disaster as I ended up giving back everything I’d won during the day.  Stupid boy.

Back to today – the only other game I bothered with earlier this afternoon was the Villareal v Sevilla match that ended in a 3-3 goalfest though I took no part in the match after the first half having secured a bit of money by laying the 0-0 ht score.

Nothing more for me today, just glad it didn’t all end in tears which it so very nearly did.  Spreadsheet below.

Start Bank(10th) :    267.50
End Bank         :    258.56
Profit / Loss    :   -8.94 (After Commission)

Start Bank(11th) :    258.56
End Bank         :    265.27
Profit / Loss    :   +6.71 (After Commission)

Start Bank(12th) :    265.27
End Bank         :    313.61
Profit / Loss    :   +48.34 (After Commission)

When Will All The Cheating Stop ?

January 9, 2011

I was really looking forward to what has to be arguably the highest profile game of the day and I am referring of course to the FA Cup 3rd Round match at Old Trafford.  As a Man Utd fan you can count on one hand the number of teams that we have to stick it to, Liverpool probably occupy the number 2 spot,  but I’m a great believer in fair play and the way we won today was nothing short of embarassing.  Liverpool is always a great scalp to take but not in today’s circumstances.

Berba’s obvious dive was reprehensible though I have to say I’ve seen worse but what really troubles me is the prevalence of such play.  There isn’t a day goes by without players attempting to con the referee by diving about the place or rolling round as if shot.  This never happened in the days when Sir Bobby Charlton graced the pitch that’s for sure.  In those days if a player rolled about the floor it’s because they’d been clattered good and properly by some brute of a defender (Norman Hunter springs to mind for some reason).  All in all it makes for a poor game and does absolutely zero for the image of the game.  I get stick all the time about ‘Soccer’ as they call it here in Canada – it’s no wonder the sport hasn’t really taken off here like it should have.

The sending off was another controversial point in the game and my take on it is that Gerrard should have been bollocked and yellow carded.  It’s not like the game was being played in the spirit of an Old Firm game at the time.  I pretty much lost interest following that as the rest of the first half was scrappy to say the least. 

Chelsea took their sweet time to get going against Ipswich but get going they did and I’m glad as they got me back the money I lost on the United game and the lame arsed 0-0 draw between Chievo and Palermo.  Lots of goals in Spain have meant that my account climbs a little further towards the clouds and I’m still considering another foray into the Real Madrid match as I don’t think we are finished with the goals there.  That’s all for now but I will be back later as there’s plenty of footy left yet.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  I got the extra goals I needed in the Real Madrid game thanks to Christiano Ronaldo.  What a player.  He can play act with the best of  ’em and that I don’t like but when he decides to play football look out because he’s almost (almost) up there with Messi.

A drubbing for Juve at the hands of Napoli added a few more coppers to the tin and that was it for footy.  I had a bit of a rest to watch TV for a bit and then had a look in at the Aussie racing.  Not much going on there really so calling it a day.  Spready below

Start Bank (8th):    248.29
End Bank        :    204.90
Profit / Loss   :   -43.39 (After Commission)

Start Bank (9th):    204.90
End Bank        :    267.50
Profit / Loss   :   +62.60 (After Commission)

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