Tuesday Night

November 30, 2010

Just a quickie post.  Only 1 game for me today and that’s the only one left in play on Betfair.  I missed the lay of 0-0 HT as I was waiting for the price to tick down a bit before I stepped in but Velez scored.  I’ve layed the 1-0 HT score and had bets on 3-0 and 3-1 in the FT market which hopefully will give me a trading chance if more goals get scored.  That’s it – back in a bit.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Argie football has to be the muggiest game on the planet.  Anyone who witnessed this spectacle will know what I’m saying.  Final score was 2-1 when Velez should have gone unquoted but failed to convert piss simple chances in both halves.

Add to this the shite day I had yesterday (though I didn’t post) and my account now sits just a few pounds above it’s starting balance.  With Crimbo just around the corner I really need some decent football but the time difference is a killer during the week with me being 5 hrs behind UK time – all the better football is on while I’m out at work so the only time I get a decent few games to pick from is weekends.  Ah well, enough pissing and moaning – spreadsheet below.

Start Bank      :    113.70
End Bank        :     88.90
Profit / Loss   :   -24.80 (After Commission)

Anyone For Overs ?

November 28, 2010

I’ve been watching the Spurs v Liverpool match and while it was a fairly clueless affair for the most part the game came alive in the final 5 minutes with a goal for the Scousers and missed chances at both ends, though the best chances fell to Liverpool who really should have converted at least one of those and be sitting pretty with a 2 goal lead going into half time.

My normal plan of attack with most matches is to lay the 0-0 HT score, or the current score if there is a very early goal, say withing the first 5 minutes.  If it pays off I will leave the game and look for my next target.  I’m switching things up a bit though, probably because the snow is on the ground outside and it’s a fairly easy decision to watch the second half of the Spurs game, but more because that burst of action towards the tail end of the first half has me thinking there’s a bit more to come at White Hart Lane.  I’m backing over 2.5 goals and will either trade or stick depending on when (or even if) the goals come.  Back in a bit.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Christ that was hard to watch if you were backing goals.  First of all a missed Spurs penalty, a couple of further (albeit dubious) penalty shouts turned down, then a disallowed goal all conspiring to give me a heart attack.  Goal backers had to wait until the 92nd minute for the bet to land but it was a great effort by Aaron Lennon, described as ‘the sprinter with a go faster stripe on his head’ by commentator Jon Champion, who, after controlling a pacy cross with his chest, blasted forward past the last man and on  into the penalty box to push the ball past the outstretched Pepe Reina to score.

I’m currently waiting on a goal in the Athetic Bilbao match but it’s not looking good with only 10 minutes left of the first half but as ever you have to remain optimistic.  Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  What a vile match, still 0-0 as I type and only a few minutes left.  I’m moving on to the Palermo Roma game where I’m going to lay the 0-0 HT score to start with and go from there.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Taking a chance on laying the 0-0 HT score in the Uni De Chile game which is currently 21 minutes old.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  The Palermo game turned out OK with a goal in the first half so my lay of 0-0 HT came in.  The Uni De Chile game left me frustrated as is usual with this standard of football.  There was tons of enthusiasm but not much content.  Both teams seemed to adopt some kind of ‘swarm’ strategy whenever the opposition drew close to their 18 yard box as the attacker would fall prey to a horde of opposing players and inevitably lose the ball. 

Uni should by rights have closed the half a goal up as they hit the post then a short while later screwed up a simple ball that had pretty much bounced on the penalty spot and was begging to be smashed into the net only for the striker to half heartedly tap it into the keepers arms.  More money down the pan.

Finally I ventured to lay the 0-0 HT score in the River Plate match against Olimpo and while things were starting to look grim River managed to convert from a corner in the 32nd minute to score what so far is the only goal of the match.

Only two more in play offerings left, both from Mexico with one being the second leg of the match up between Monterrey and Pumas UNAM which ended is a dismal 0-0 draw a few days ago.  Not sure what to do yet but I’ll more than likely succumb and get involved in one or both of these pish fixtures.  That’s it for now.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Decided to go with the Santos Laguna match and I’m very glad I did.  I picked up the action at the start of the second half and thankfully it was a goalfest.  I basically layed the current score then after a goal went in layed the next current score and so on.  I actually missed out on laying the 1-1 score as the Betfair market hadn’t recovered before the home team made it 2-1.  Anyway it was a really good match to be involved in finishing 3-3 and helped me to end the day up instead of down.  I didn’t bother with the Monterrey game and I’m thankful for that as once again a scoreless first half would have done me no good at all.

That’s it for tonight, spreadsheet below.

Start Bank      :    129.53
End Bank        :    143.03
Profit / Loss   :   +13.50 (After Commission)

Demolition Man

November 27, 2010

The post title refers to the one man demolition job of Blackburn Rovers by the lazy Bulgarian at Old Trafford a short while ago. His 5 goals plus one apiece for Park and Nani saw Man U return to the top of the Prem with an emphatic 7-1 victory.  Berbs came very close to achieving goalscoring immortality in the 88th minute as he very nearly put his 6th in the net denied only by a great save from Paul Robinson.

And so on to the days betting.  So far it’s been three out of three for me with successful bets in the Villa v Arse match, Man U v Blackburn, and most recently after Villareal scored their second goal away to Real Zaragoza.  My next intended bet is in the Dortmund v M’Gladbach match that kicked off  25 minutes ago…I have been watching the action and waiting for the price of the 0-0 half time score to drop and have now submitted my bet, a lay of 0-0 in the half time market, so I’m off to watch the rest of the half.  Later on I hope to be getting something from the Dinamo Bucharest match.  Back later.

 UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  I stopped off at the Sevilla match on the way to the Dinamo Bucharest game and picked up a few more pounds.  I’m currently waiting for the floodgates to open in Bucharest as I’ve layed the 0-0 half time score there.  Very frustrating trying to find a feed to watch this match but I’m not really surprised.  Probably similar probs for the Betfair suspend monkey as I watched a good 6 minutes or so of play before the match was turned in play on Betfair…would’ve been a free for all if a goal had gone in.  I’m off again to find another feed…back for the Espanyol game.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  A scoreless first half and no decent feed for the game in Romania dampened my spirits a bit.  I’m the first to say that you shouldn’t get involved in the mug football leagues but there I go breaking my own rules however I wouldn’t have gone there had I not thought that it would have paid off.  So the first loss of the day for me and I’m now on over 2.5 goals in the Juve match.  I’ll probably trade out if I get a goal early enough (assuming Juve don’t continue to squander what are some excellent opportunities…not discounting the Viola who are more than capable of scoring from a break).  Bring on the goals.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Well that was a thoroughly entertaining second half even though I lost money.  The Fiora keeper was the hero of the day making a series of vital saves to deny Juve the 3 points.  Juve managed to pull a goal back though it came late in the match and try as they might they couldn’t find the winner.  I couldn’t trade out of my overs position as the price didn’t drop sufficiently.  In fact I backed it again when Juve pressure looked like prevailing but it wasn’t to be.

I noticed the final score in Bucharest was a very dismal goalless draw which stinks given Dinamo’s propensity for scoring at home (all of their home games have gone over 2.5 goals this season barring today).  I really must stay away from this shite.

Betting on the Juve game was pretty much a knee jerk reaction for me following the losses on the Dinamo game – the intention was to wait for the Atl Madrid v Espanyol game.  Obviously there have been goals in that match just to piss me off so I’m going to take a look at the second period of the game and see if I can pick something up to take the sting out of pretty much spending a whole day at my pc for a net loss of  £0.67 instead of the £57.05 that I was up before the Romanian crap.  More to follow.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  The Espanyol match was very kind to me as the second half goalfest saw three successful correct score lays go my way and the final one went against me to give a little back but a pleasing game both from a betting standpoint and from a spectators one as well.  Wish every match I watch had as much commitment.

I ended the night with a visit to Colombia for the shitefest between Tolima and La Equidad.  These two teams are truly awful but it is their underlying atrociousness that serves to unwittingly create chances from which goals are scored and this match didn’t disappoint. 

I missed the first goal as I was fiddling about trying to undercut the price to lay the 0-0 score.  A long range shot that my dog could have saved went bobbling over the top of the prone keeper.  After the market reorganised itself I layed the 1-0 half time score and had to sit through some truly terrible football including an open goal miss from 3 yards out but the second goal came as the visitors somehow managed to barge their way through a shambolic Tolima defence to score and the money was in the bag. 

I’m thankful that today is over as I really should have stopped much earlier in the day but things have a way of swinging against you and then it’s decision time – do you pack it in for the day or carry on to see if you can salvage anything ? I chose the latter and it worked out though it made for a long day.  The trouble is even after all this time I still have a hard time when I have a losing day, but moreso if I don’t have a great deal of money in the betting bank.  Anyway, enough typing for one day, spreadsheet below.

Start Bank      :    98.34
End Bank        :    129.53
Profit / Loss   :   +31.19 (After Commission)

Recording Your Bets

November 26, 2010

Whether you’re new to betting or a seasoned punter one of the habits you really should try to adopt is to record your bets meticulously.  Yes, I know the online bookies do it for you and generating a P&L isn’t that much bother but there’s nothing like a proper visual that you can refer to if things take a turn for the worst.  Identifying and rectifying your punting mistakes, and more often than not these are simply periods of indiscipline where you veer off your normal course, are made far simpler if you keep your own records and update them bet by bet.

Anyone who has read my blog will see that I maintain a spreadsheet detailing every single bet that I make.  What makes things a little simpler in my case is that I use Betfair exclusively, no one else.  Because I’m feeling benevolent I’ve made a copy of the exact spreadsheet that I use and it’s free and available  for anyone that wants to download it and use it to start recording their own bets.  Click here to download my spreadsheet.  All the formulae needed are programmed in, all you would have to do would be to start at the top and change the starting bank amount then edit in your bets in place of the ones that I’ve left in of mine that are there to show you how I fill mine in.  And for anyone wondering – yes it’s clean.

Anyway, moving swiftly on – I started watching the Union San Felipe v Union Espanola match and the first half was a free scoring affair so I decided that maybe the second half would follow the first so I layed the 2-2 score in the correct score market.  Imagine my surprise to see no-one has troubled the nets so far in the second half.  I’m getting that nasty feeling that anyone backing further goals in this match will be put to the sword.  I hope I’m wrong as I have a large chunk of my bank on the score changing…only 20 odd minutes left.  Back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  I was still trying to figure out how to insert a downloadable file into my post when the 5th goal went in so my fears of a goalless second half were unfounded.  The home team looked the better side in the first half but ended up surrendering a 2 goal lead to eventually suffer a 2-4 loss.  Funny old game.  I had a mickey mouse back of the unquoted in the half time market really late into the half that failed but the correct score lay recouped and added a little back to the bank.  No more footy for me tonight.  Enjoy using the spreadsheet if you think it’s useful and if anyone has any questions about it just ask away and I’ll answer either via email or comments.

Start Bank      :    88.93
End Bank        :    98.34
Profit / Loss   :   +9.41 (After Commission)

Onwards And Upwards

November 25, 2010

The whistle has just sounded to signal the start of tonight’s Copa Sudamericana semi final second leg between Independiente and LDU Quito and that’s my port of call for the evening after having scored earlier in the day with a lay of the 0-1 half time score in the Qatar v Yemen match. 

Qatar were pretty much all over Yemen though they found themselves a goal behind fairly early on but the pace of the match plus a lot of really good chances being created but ultimately squandered suggested that more goals were to come if the strikers could just get their act together.  Anyway the goal that I needed came with about 15 minutes left of the first half so that was me done and dusted and the account now climbs to 3 figures WOOHOO !!

Whilst I was typing the above the feed for the Copa match was lost so Betfair have suspended betting until pictures return.  I had no bets on the match pre kick off so it’s a case of wait and see what happens.  FFS, betting unsuspended again so I’ll watch for a bit then decide what to do.  Back in a bit…

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Not sure what to make of the first half given that Independiente scored first (offside) but instead of shutting up shop they kept pressing throughout the first half and Quito seemed happy to soak up the pressure.  That made no sense to me as Independiente were technically going through if they managed to successfully defend their lead so that led me to thinking that Quito were maybe trying to hold on and not concede any more and then come out all guns blazing in the second half.  I was almost right – they decided to attack right at the end of the half and levelled the score.  This sets up the second half nicely as Independiente are once again on the back foot so have no option but to attack so one way or another I think there will be more goals to come.  I’m going to lay the 1-1 scoreline in the correct score market and wait for my goal to come.  Back with a final update later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Well that turned out nice, I’d barely finished typing and Independiente scored…laying the 2-1 score now…back later

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>   I layed the 2-1 score to lose exactly what I made from laying 1-1 so no harm done but I have to say it’s frustrating betting in matches between gash teams like these.  Passes going astray left and right, balls played into spaces where there is no one to receive them, unforced errors left right and centre and one piece of play I spotted had me asking out loud “Why did he do that ?”.  I’m referring to a ball played forward by Independiente towards the right hand side of Quito’s 18 yard box…no-one was there to receive it and no one chased after it…the Quito fullback let it go through back towards the goalie.  Now this is with 18 minutes left on the clock and Quito are out of the final if the score remains as it is so what does the goalie do ?  Does he pick it up quick and get the ball back out pronto to one of his team mates ?  No does he fuck.  He let’s it go out for a goalkick following which the ball is turned back over to Independiente.  It’s cluelessness like that that has me wondering how some of these retards sleep at night given the shocking performances they put in.  Anyway it’s over now and I’m a little bit miffed that I gave back what I made but there we are.

I’m toying with the Pumas v Monterrey game that kicks off in just under 5 minutes.  These two last met in Monterrey back in August with Monterrey running out winners by 5 goals to 2 but all was square at half time.  The damage came in the second half after Pumas had a man sent off so maybe that scoreline flattered Monterrey a little.  Tonight’s match is the first leg of an Apertura playoff and I’m going to start as I usually do by watching and if goals look likely I’ll be laying the 0-0 half time score.  Back in a bit…

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  The Mexican game was pish to say the least unless you like throw ins, in which case you’d be in heaven.  I’ve never seen so many throw ins in a match in my entire life.  Apart from the single chance that fell to Monterrey when they managed to hit the post this has been a case of two teams running round like headless chickens and the home team are shiteing it big time judging by the amount of ball that’s been passed square and backwards instead of forwards. These two won’t be troubling the nets today so I’m done with this dross.  Spready below.

Start Bank      :    96.14
End Bank        :    88.93
Profit / Loss   :   -7.21 (After Commission)

My First Bet Following A Betfair Reload

November 24, 2010

Well folks, I’m off and running again and so begins a new campaign to build a mountain of cash from a molehill of a betting bank.  My intended target match for my first public wager since March was always going to be the Rangers v Man U game though work commitments saw to it that I missed the first half hour of the game.

After tuning in to Setanta and settling down to watch the match I toyed with the idea of laying the 0-0 half time score, a favourite bet of mine, but I held out in favour of getting into the over 1.5 goals market which I duly bet on at the beginning of the second half at a shade over evens.

By minute 75 I was getting a little bit twitchy as no one had really come close to scoring but I still thought there may be something to come as Man Utd are not the sort of team to settle for a scoreless draw regardless of the quality of the opposition.  The only real way to avoid losing money IF the score changed was obviously to lay the current score so with around 9 minutes to play that’s what I did, staking appropriately to recoup my losses in the over 1.5 market (assuming only 1 goal being scored) and make a little on top.

When the penalty was awarded and Wayne Rooney picked up the ball I thought for sure he was going to screw it up as, since his return in the red jersey, he’s still miles off recapturing the form we know he’s capable of.  My misgivings were unfounded and the penalty was a peach and the way he celebrated said a lot about just how much he needed to get that ball in the net.  Let’s hope that it will serve as a catalyst to galvanise him into finding the goalscoring form we’re used to.

Now there is one more in play match tonight that gets underway in a little over half an hour though in reality the teams will probably still be snorting lines instead of trotting out onto the pitch.  I am of course referring to the Copa Sudamericana Semi Final 2nd leg between Palmeiras and Goias.  Pal are a goal to the good following a scrappy affair in the first leg so a draw will do for them.  Goias were relegated last weekend so they really don’t have much going for them league wise so hopefully they will make a match of it and go for the win tonight to put them through for a shot at the silverware.  Time will tell.  Personally I can’t stand Palmeiras having been fucked over by them previously but hopefully tonight’s offering will see both teams come out and give it a square go.  I’ll be back later on with an update if I decide to get involved in that match.  The updated spreadsheet is below.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Layed the 0-0 Half time score in the Palmeiras match so off to watch it and report back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Well, that worked out OK…1-1 at half time and 1-2 to the visitors at full time…updated spready below.

Start Bank      :    80.00
End Bank        :    96.14
Profit / Loss    : +16.14 (After Commission)

Inside Info That Saved My Bacon

November 22, 2010

Ah, ‘Insider info’, that old chestnut.  It’s been around since the dawn of time but how can you tell if what you are being told is really golden or not especially if it’s from someone you don’t really know that well ?  Approach with maximum caution is what you should do but sometimes we happen across snippets of info that really must be acted upon and acted upon swiftly or we will end up literally kicking ourselves for ignoring it.

During Gulf War 1 I was stationed in Saudi Arabia ‘somewhere in the Eastern Province’ as we liked to say and one night, well actually it was closer to 3am, I was awakened by a furious rapping on the window above my bed.  We weren’t billeted in tents, we were on some gated compound or other vacated by a multitude of Western civilian workers due to all the impending trouble about to kick off. 

 “You’ve got to get rid of it – they know !” said the voice on the other side of the window.  “What the fuck are on about ?”, I asked back, wiping the sleep from my eyes.  “The booze. They know about the booze and they know where you’re at.  They are going to shake you down tomorrow morning.” came the reply.

The voice was referring to the 25 cases of Famous Grouse whisky that were stashed under my bed and inside and on top of my wardrobe in the cramped space that I called home for the duration of the war.  “Hang on a minute…” I hear you say, “…this is Saudi Arabia…there’s no booze in Saudi Arabia.”  And to this claim I say “Oh yes there is…fucking loads of it.”.

Booze, whether it be spirits or beer, is readily available in Saudi though most of it has to be home brewed.  The Sauds turn a blind eye to what goes on behind closed doors as they know that were they to really crack down on drinking they wouldn’t have any Western help left as everyone would bugger off somewhere else.  The brand name stuff also makes it’s way into the country though I’m not really at liberty to say how the 25 cases managed to find their way under my bed but the wider point I’m making in this paragraph is that booze is available and it is the equivalent of liquid gold.

Now, back to 3am on a compound somewhere in the Eastern Province…

My informant who is also my supplier of the liquid gold tells me that the game is up etc etc and the brass are going to shake me down in the morning and we’ll both be fucked so the booze has to go somewhere else.  We had only recently been introduced and between us hatched a plan that so far had enabled us to obtain and distribute 67 cases of various brand name spirits to the masses.  Selling at £500 a case it more than covered our overheads.  Anyway, he had a right panic on but he was unaware that I was familiar with the entire surrounding area and that before he’d finished shitting his pants I had formulated a cunning plan.

I got dressed and went to the area on the compound where most of the vehicles that weren’t in use were parked.  Following a quick snoop around we found a Land Rover with the keys in it so we ‘borrowed’ it and made our way back to my chamber.  We parked up right outside the window that overlooked my bed and I nipped inside and began transferring the cases through the window and into the back of the Rover.

Once all the boxes were loaded we proceeded to make our way off the compound and along the highway for a mile or so and then we hung a quick right and entered another compound that housed many hundreds of expatriate workers all oblivious of the life or death mission that we were undertaking.

We parked up in front of one of the more secluded villas and I knocked on the door.  Nothing.  So I knocked again.  Still nothing.  So I went to a window and banged on it whereupon a bleary eyed Welshman, let’s call him Pete (because that was his name), pulled the curtains aside to see who the fuck was banging on his window at 3.30 in the morning.

I simply pointed to the front door and Pete opened it shortly thereafter.  “What the fuck are you doing ?” he cried.  “Pete, I need to ask you a favour…”, I said, “… I need to hide a coupla cases of booze til tomorrow.”  “What booze ?”, he asked, and with that and in dramatic fashion I whipped back the plastic rear tailgate canopy on the Rover to reveal what equated to a diplomatic incident and / or 20 years in a Saudi jail if we were caught with it. “Oh for fuck’s sake…get it in here quick.” said an ashen faced Pete as he scrambled to pull back a mat that was covering a trapdoor that led to a crawl space beneath the villa.

So far so good.  We started moving the cases chain like, me to my accomplice, and he to Pete, and from Pete into the crawl space and I was starting to breath easier now that it looked like the whole incident had been dealt with.  Then, out of nowhere, came a powerful flashlight that bathed us all in it’s light.  Right there and then my stomach tightened and I started to wish I’d never seen Midnight Express.  The flashlight made it’s way towards us and my head was spinning wondering how the fuck we were going to get out of this predicament.  After what seemed like ages the flashlight and it’s owner was upon us and demanding to know what was going on.  He flashed his light into the back of the rover and turned to face us, his eyes were on stalks, “What is this..?” he said, pointing to the booze in the back of the Rover.  The light from Pete’s front hallway lit up the face of our interrogator and almost at once my utter despair turned to jubilation as I saw that he was a Filipino and not an Arab.  Oh joy of fucking joys.  The Filipinos, or Flips for short, are there by necessity, not because they like the place.  Their Saudi masters treat them like shite so it’s little wonder that they don’t really give 100% if they don’t need to.  I whipped out a 50 Riyal note and gave it to the guy, put my finger to my lips and said “Sshhh, big party. You keep quiet, OK ?” and handed him the money which he took without hesitation.  He nodded and went on his way leaving the three of us to hurriedly finish our task.

When we were done Pete went back to bed and we went back to our compound, put the Rover back, and went our seperate ways.  The following day I met with the intended recipient of the shipment, took him round to Pete’s place, and helped him load the cases into his Isuzu Trooper.  The brass did indeed check out my living quarters but, unlike me, they didn’t act as swiftly on their insider info and all they found was a relatively tidy bed space.  My bacon was saved (“But this is Saudi Arabia, there’s no bacon in Saudi.”. Oh really ? I beg to differ ;-)) 

Shortly after that episode the ground war started and that saw my supply cut off at the knees for reasons that I won’t go into but for the short while that it lasted it kept me busy when I wasn’t doing other things.

If you’ve read this far then it’s fair to say that it’s probably not what you expected but as with other posts I’ve made it’s my way of highlighting certain aspects of the world of punting, whether you do it for fun or to pay the bills.  Maybe some people truly are privy to real insider information but that doesn’t mean that they will profit from it every time so the message here is that regardless of who provides you with it you have to assimilate it and decide what to do with it.  No one is twisting your arm but you never really know in advance whether or not your acting upon it will result in a positive outcome until the event is decided.

Best of luck out there…only 22 hours to go and I will be back amongst you.

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