Damn Dogs

The bloody dogs had me up twice during the night, two of ’em wanting to go out at around half one in the morning, then the same two plus a third one got me up again at around quarter to five, the little swines that they are.  At least there’s no chance of sleeping in and missing the day’s early in play games.

Speaking of which I had arrived at the conclusion that the Hiroshima v Shandong Luneng match would be the perfect start to my day as research suggested goals so I duly layed the 0-0 half time score.  Obviously the teams had other ideas and the match ended is a miserable away win by a single goal coming less than 15 minutes from full time.  A 27 quid hit isn’t the way I like to start my day.

Of the other early games in the Asian Champions League one ended up not going in play so there wasn’t much left to go at.  These are the times when, if you can’t wait until the better games come on later in the day, you should go and do something away from the computer.  But not me.  I had 27 quid to make up just to be even on the day so I started out on that task.

I have recently unearthed a laying method that was tied to a subscription based service who provided emailed information pinpointing the horse races of the day where the favourite should be opposed.  The method was very simple – the user would place his lay stake according to the emailed instructions then if the lay was beaten bank the money and move on.  If the lay won the race then the following two lays would be staked thus: regular stake amount + (money lost on first lay divided by 2).  So if the guy’s regular lay stake was 20 quid (regardless of the price, so you are laying to win a fixed amount not laying to lose a fixed amount) and the first lay won the race the next two lays would be for a total of 30 quid each time.  If all lays won their races then you stop for the day, readjust your target amount, then start again fresh the next day.  If this condition wasn’t met (maybe the second or third lay lost it’s race) then you would continue laying and adjusting until the day was done.

Although the site claims that they were winning most days I had occasion to email the creator of this system and contest the figures quoted on the website.  He mailed back to tell me that they binned the dividing the losses on the first lay by 2 and opted for dividing the losses by 4.  Apparently this was to appease those punters who were a bit choked up on days where things went totally wrong (so they ended up not losing as much on the day before they stopped).

So the reason for telling you this is that this is the method I’ll be adopting for a while just to see how it goes and it’ll only apply to my lays of the half time scores.  By adopting this method you can see that it only takes two successful lays to recover your losses plus a little bit extra.  I’ve already placed my first recovery bet using the method, which was a lay of 0-0 in the Mes Kernan v Al Ahli match.  The stake was for my usual bet of a tenner plus a quarter of my losses (rounded up) from the Hiroshima match so my total was a lay to win me 17 quid which I can report was successful.  I was tempted to follow up in the Ethnikos match as the market expects APOEL to batter them but you can’t trust those Greeks so I’m going to go with the CSKA v Sevilla match as it’s live on Setanta…if the omens look good then that’ll be my next lay of 0-0 half time for 17 quid.  The teams are out so I’m off…back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> Well I’m glad I avoided those Greeks as they are definitely not to be trusted.  That’s twice in a week that the market has predicted a walkover for one Greek team over another only for it to end goalless so it’s no wonder on occasion you have bookies refusing to take bets on certain matches.  Anyway, enough of that and on to proper football.  After 20 minutes of watching the CSKA match I was cursing Sevilla as they clearly looked to be playing for containment of CSKA only.  Their first corner (I think) was a pathetic short pass which resulted in nothing more than a throw in following a brief skirmish along the line.  I was delighted a few moments later though when Sevilla broke away down the right and a low cross beat everyone in the box falling to Negredo as last man for an easy tap in.  That would be my second lay netting another 17 quid so I’m currently up 4.50 as I type. 

There’s a lot of footy left and we’re a bit spoilt for choice but I have to say I fancy goals in the Spurs Bolton game.  I’m starting off by covering 3-0, 3-1, and 3-2 and hoping for an end to end affair.  The match is live on Setanta so going to disappear off and report back later.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>>  Spurs ran out very comfortable winners in the end and after the second goal went in I forced myself to back the unquoted to make sure I didn’t lose on the only conceivable scoreline that I didn’t already have covered.  It turned out to be a wise move seeing that an early second half goal, their third, pretty much killed the price on unquoted so then it was just a case of wait and see what happens.  Spurs always looked threatening even though they backed off a bit at three quarter time but I layed off a bit of my 3-0 profits to bump up the take out on unquoted.  I don’t mind sacrificing a few quid of green even if the move doesn’t come off because it’s a good habit to get into in the long run.

There’s only shite left now and the right thing to do is leave it alone but one match stands out as long as they decide to play football and that’s the game between Corinthians and Racing Club of Urugay.  I got involved in a Corinthians league match the other night and those cheating bastards ensured the game finished 0-0 when they could have torn their opposition apart.  Tonights game is a Copa Lib match so I expect a more competitive effort from them on home soil.  My forecast is over 2.5 but I’ll be watching and waiting from the off for the 0-0 half time score to drop to an acceptable price (so as long as I feel there may be a goal forthcoming I will lay the 0-0).  That’s all for now, the next update will be the last of the night.

UPDATE>>>>>>>>> I just happened to sit down in front of the pc to check email etc when I caught sight of the Cruzeiro match turning in play so I found a feed and watched for a bit.  Both sides appeared to be trying so I made my mind up to find an entry point into the match but before the 0-0 half time price dropped sufficiently Cruzeiro went a goal up.  The match carried on at the same hectic pace so when I felt comfortable I layed the 1-0 half time score and I’m happy to say Colo Colo stepped up and levelled the score.  Two red cards for Colo Colo in the second half put paid to their night as Cruzeiro romped the match 4-1.

Eventually the Corinthians match started and wasn’t much over a minute old when the away side scored.  Prices on the half time scores were ludicrous as the market expected a Corinthians reply (which they eventually got) so I switched my tactics up and backed Corinthians to win at the inflated price of 1.85 (they started the match around 1.25) hoping to trade out when they scored.  For a while Racing were looking pretty sharp and Corinthians weren’t exactly trying too hard so I stuck a small amount on Racing to leave me with red on the draw only.  After 71 minutes the 11 man Corinthians side managed to put the second goal past a 10 man Racing side and that was the end result, 2-1.  I greened up following the goal to take another small amount from this game but I don’t think I’ll be bothering with Corinthians again.  I don’t like their style of play…rather than getting balls wide they seem to prefer coming down the centre channel and trying to finesse their way through to the goal.  It’s how their second goal was scored but I’m still not convinced…they are almost too patient which bugs the shit out of me so no more Corinthians.  Roberto Carlos and that fat pudding Ronaldo can kiss my arse.

In summary not a bad day – at least I won as opposed to lost which is always preferable.  The bank increased by 45 quid and change so happy with that.  This bank building lark is bloody tedious as the increases are so small right now but I really am trying not to do dumb things and over commit and it appears to be going OK for now.  Spreadsheet etc below, talk tomorrow.

Start Bank      :    291.35
End Bank        :    337.17
Profit / Loss    : + 45.82 (After Commission)

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One Response to Damn Dogs

  1. Edgehunters says:

    Hi Swearbox

    With regards to your staking plan Idea. I have always been of the opinion that using a limit progression stakng plan can increase returns.

    The only problem I have encountered is being able to take the hit(without chasing) if you lose the last step of your progression.

    Thanks
    Mark

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